Aiken, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

497
FXUS62 KCAE 141701
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
101 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely this morning as a
disturbance pivots through the region. An upper level ridge
centered over the region on Friday will shift west this weekend
and into next week. Lower rain chances are expected with
slightly below to near normal temperatures over the weekend into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered showers/storms possible this afternoon before
  clearing tonight.

Quite the robust MCV has been pushing through the area this morning.
This developed yesterday over the northern Gulf and propagated
northeastward along the western periphery of the mid/upper level
ridge. PWs of 2.2"-2.4" were in place ahead of this, with even
moderate showers yielding efficient rainfall totals despite an
overall lack of instability. 6hr MRMS rainfall estimates show the
heaviest rainfall generally along and south of I20 this morning,
with most seeing 0.25"-0.75" of rainfall. The heaviest rainfall fell
from eastern Aiken County eastward through Clarendon and Sumter
counties, where estimated of up to 2.5" fell in the heaviest rain!
Cloud cover is noted across the entire area currently as the MCV
continues to slowly move eastward, with widely scattered
showers in its wake. These will likely continue to pose a threat
for brief, heavy rainfall but this will remain isolated. The
MCV is robust enough that a period of subsidence is expected
this afternoon and evening which will help limit overall
coverage of showers/storms despite an expectation of clearing.
Highs should get into the upper 80s across the western half of
the area, with low/mid 80s in the east and northeast where cloud
cover is most copious. As we get into tonight, partly cloudy
skies are expected, with some patchy fog or stratus developing
late in the night. Lows will likely be in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Slightly hotter on Friday with Heat Index climbing into the
low 100s in the SC Midlands and CSRA.
- A weak boundary will drop southward on Saturday, cooling us back
just below normal.

The morning guidance suggests that a mid/upper trof axis to our west
early Friday will lift/fill during the day with 500 mb height rises
across the Carolinas as the upper anticyclones over the Plains and
the northeast Gulf essentially merge. Not a lot going on aloft
through the day to support convection and there doesn`t appear to be
much to trigger the deep convection. The HRRR keeps things fairly
quiet until late afternoon/early evening as outflow boundaries creep
in, so the balance of the day might end up a bit quieter than the
model blend would have us believe. The storms would be fairly run-of-
the-mill with the usual small risk for severe weather. The storms
would diminish in the middle part of the evening with the loss of
heating. That would leave the temps as the bigger concern, as they
creep upward a few degrees to the warm side of normal while dewpoint
remains elevated. The combination could bring the heat index into
the lower 100s over the Midlands and CSRA during the afternoon,
though below Heat Advisory criteria.

A weak boundary is expected to sink southward across the region at
some point on Saturday, perhaps earlier in the day, but the passage
will be subtle. Mainly, it should help to drop the temps back down
on the cool side of normal for Saturday highs. Whether or not it can
provide more focus for convection remains to be seen and confidence
is marginal, mainly because of the lack of interest seen in some of
the operational models and the NAMNest. The forecast will feature a
chance of precip in a gradient from N to S, with the higher chances
on the southern fringe closer to where the boundary should be later
in the day. The risk for severe weather appears to be relatively
low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Relatively dry behind a weak front for Sunday and Monday.
- Mainly diurnal storm chances return by Thursday.

As we get through the weekend, the newly combined mid/upper
anticyclone over the Plains will drift eastward and expand toward
our area, bringing us under the influence of a more suppressive
northerly flow aloft for the first part of the week. Fcst soundings
suggest warm air at mid-levels that will put a damper on the
convective potential for Sunday and Monday, but even out into the
middle part of the week the situation doesn`t look particularly
favorable for anything other than isolated diurnal storms in spite
of the anticyclone retrograding and the pattern amplifying. It may
depend on how strong the developing mid/upper trof gets over the Mid-
Atlantic/Northeast as to whether or not the forecast trends toward
something more active mid-week. Either way, this trof should keep
Erin well to our east as the storm navigates the weakness between
the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the anticyclone over the Plains.
Temps should make it back to hovering around normal, but there
remains a lot of wiggle room there.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Stratus continues across the area as of this writing, with
subsidence and increasing sunshine expected to help clear out low-
clouds at the TAF sites as we go through the morning.

An unusual but favorable setup for widespread showers overspread the
region early this morning, resulting in rain at all TAF sites
and periodic vis/cig restrictions. The rain is (mostly) east of
all sites now, with vicinity showers continuing at all sites.
Clouds are forecast to gradually continue rising over the coming
hours as low- level flow shifts northwesterly on the backside
of this weak low- pressure. This should result in some downslope
flow helping to dry out the low-levels a bit and aid in the
lifting of ceilings. Still don`t expect that until ~19z, maybe
slightly later at OGB since they`ll be closer to the low.
Overall, though, VFR conditions should return soon. Winds are
going to be a bit funky for a few hours as they continue to
shift around the departing low but they`ll be fairly weak and
shouldn`t impact anything too much. As we get into tonight,
aviation specific guidance is indicative of a round of fog/low
clouds in the 08z-13z timeframe at all sites. Flow is quite weak
in the low-levels, and given how wet we have been lately, it
certainly seems possible that some should develop. Confidence is
not high but will likely add either a PROB30 to convey the low
probability of impactful ceilings/vis restrictions developing
late in this period. Whatever does develop looks likely to break
up by mid-morning at the latest tomorrow, with VFR conditions
returning.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...More typical summertime conditions
return with afternoon convection and possible periods of stratus
in the morning each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...