Aiken, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

566
FXUS62 KCAE 160636
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
236 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak upper ridging will continue to break down today, leading
to lower daytime temperatures and scattered shower/storms during
the afternoon and evening. Upper ridging then returns for the
late week and this weekend, bringing warming temperatures,
muggy conditions, and more typical shower/storm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated to Scattered Storms this afternoon

Skies will likely be mostly clear early this morning with temps
falling into the low/mid 70s across the area. No convection is
expected with stable air over the forecast area. With crossover
temps in the low 70s we may see some patchy fog around sunrise
but fog should be restricted to fog prone locations such as near
streams and bodies of water.

Surface low pressure will shift further west today into the
Gulf. The area of subsidence which kept convection rather
limited the previous day will also shift west today. This
should allow for higher thunderstorm coverage than the previous
day. The highest chances are in the eastern Midlands and Pee
Dee where subsidence is weaker and the sea breeze helps trigger
convection. Instability remains relatively weak for the season
limiting the threat of severe weather. The western Midlands may
see only isolated storms with some drier air still in place
there. CAMs add confidence to the forecast with HREF
neighborhood probs of QPF highest along the I-95 corridor and
the Pee Dee. Temperatures today will be near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms during the afternoon
  expected each day.

Some weak lee side troughing may linger in the region into
Thursday as a low continues across the eastern Gulf. Upper
ridging and surface high pressure will slowly near the Southeast
from the east through the period, likely bringing temperatures
from near normal Thursday to above normal on Friday. 15-20 kts
of southerly to southwesterly low level flow extending up to 700
mb continues each day, aiding in keeping PWAT`s near
1.80-1.95". The lingering surface troughing combined with
nearing convective temps should allow isolated to scattered
convection each afternoon and into the evening with MLCAPE
approaching 1000-1500 J/kg. The 00z HREF members and mean
solution do suggest coverage remaining more on the isolated side
Thursday, and this may repeat again Friday. The more limited
coverage is likely owing to a weak subsidence inversion that is
noted in GFS and NAM BUFKIT soundings, possibly aiding in
keeping convection more suppressed. Either way, the risk for
severe weather is low and the aforementioned 15-20 kts of flow
should give any storm that does form around 10 kts of motion.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Warming temperatures into the weekend with muggy conditions.

- Typical summertime diurnal convection expected.

Upper ridging and surface high pressure should slide into the
FA through the weekend and into early next week where GEFS and
EC Ensemble solutions suggest that PWAT`s are near normal
initially, but then rise to around 120% of normal Sunday through
Tuesday as the upper ridge advects deep Gulf moisture along its
western periphery. With little forcing, typical isolated to
scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected each
day but the main talking point will be hot/humid conditions as
temperatures above normal are expected under the ridge this
weekend and possibly into early next week. NAEFS 850mb and 700mb
temperatures reach the 90th percentile starting Saturday and at
times, the 97th percentile Sunday and Monday, aiding in
maintaining these hot conditions. The EC EFI depicts values up
to 0.7-0.8 Sunday and Monday with a 0 Shift of Tails contour
into the Midlands, giving more confidence in the signal for
hot/muggy weather. Thus, heat indices between 100-105F will be
possible this weekend and into the early week, highest Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions likely outside of afternoon convection

Restrictions not expected this morning with slightly drier air
over the region. Models have shown some indications of
stratus/fog toward daybreak, but they have been too aggressive
over the past few nights. So instead we went more with a
persistence forecast keeping VFR conditions in place.

Winds will be more out of the S/SSE today with speeds near 10
kts in the afternoon. Convection will develop this afternoon.
Yesterday`s area of subsidence which kept showers isolated has
shifted west. This will allow scattered thunderstorms with
higher coverage than the previous day particularly in the
eastern FA and Pee Dee where the sea breeze develops and
moisture is deeper. Storms should subside shortly after 00Z as
winds become light and variable.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical seasonal restrictions
continue with daily convection and patchy early morning
fog/stratus possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$